An inarguably disappointing 2013 season for Toronto Blue Jays is coming to close this week, and I thought I'd grade the team as a way to cap their season.
Catcher:
J.P. Arencibia: It has been a rough year for J.P. Arencibia. According to FanGraphs, he has been the 3 worst player in the majors this season, at -0.6 WAR, behind Adeiny Hechavarria (ex-Blue Jay) and Paul Konerko. He has managed a slash line of .194/.227/.365, a line that is truly staggering in awfulness. His batting average is last among qualified catchers by .033. His on-base percentage is last by almost .060. His slugging percentage is last by .015, and Arencibia is "known" for his power. His season hasn't just been bad, it has been catastrophically bad. His BB% is at 3.6%, which is the third worst in the entirety of the majors. His K%, at 29.8% is the 7th worst in the majors. This awful season hasn't been bad luck, it hasn't been that he's hitting right at the opposing fielders a lot. With an awful strikeout rate like that, he's bound to have a low average, which in turn will cause a lower OBP and SLG. His power isn't all gone, as his .171 ISO Power number suggests. His extremely low SLG % is brought down by the fact that he can't keep his average above the Mendoza line. His defense this season has also been very poor. His 13 passed balls are 4 more than the next highest catcher, and he committed 11 errors, worst among catchers.
Arencibia was probably the worst player on the Jays this season which makes the fact that he has played the most innings out of any player on the team kind of scary.
F-
First Base/Designated Hitter:
Adam Lind: Lind resurrected his career this season, after spending over a quarter of last season toiling away in AAA. Lind came into this season more patient than ever, and did it ever payoff. While he didn't recreate his peak 2009 season, Lind came fairly close. He posted a line of .288/.357/.497, all numbers well above his career averages. For the fourth time in his career he surpassed the 20 home run mark, and ended the season with 23 in only 521 PA's. His 9.8 BB% is by far his career high, and over 2.5% above his career average. This should lead to more consistent success overall. His .324 BABIP is over .020 higher than his career average, but the rise in walks could be the reason to this. His defense this year was slightly subpar, posting a UZR of -2.8, which ranks him 24th out of 31 first basemen with at least 600 IP. He has a $8,000,000 team option for 2014 and I think the Jays should strongly consider executing that for Lind to be the team's first baseman next year.
B+
Edwin Encarnacion: Encarnacion had almost the exact same season as 2012 except with a little less power and a little less luck. For the second straight year he has posted a slash line above .270/.370/.530. This year, however, he lowered his K% by over 4.5%, a staggering amount, especially for a 30-year-old. For the first time in his career, he has recorded more walks than strikeouts (82 and 62, respectively). He joined Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Miguel Cabrera as the only players since 2009 to have more walks than strikeouts while hitting 30 home runs. His .247 BABIP is almost .030 below his career average, so it's perfectly reasonable to expect a small uptake in AVG, OBP, and SLG next year. Another reason to expect an even better season in 2014 is this: According to ESPN Stats and Info, Encarnacion and teammate Jose Bautista are the only players in the top 25 of "Well Hit Average" (a subjective stat kept by ESPN's team) to have a BABIP under .300, and they are both well below at .247 and .259, respectively. You would expect someone with a high "well hit average" to have a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP), as a hard hit ball is more likely to find some green than a soft hit ball, which is why the BABIP's for the top 25 are so high. So to have both Encarnacion and Bautista both have a BABIP not only below .300 but well below .300 indicates that they both could be on the upswing heading into 2014.
A
Second Base:
Maicer Izturis: If you just looked at WAR, Maicer Izturis was the very worst player in baseball this year. He was worth -2.1 wins over the course of the 2013 season. He was so bad, that even though he didn't qualify for end of season leaderboards because he didn't have enough at bats, he still accumulated the worst WAR. Izturis had 179 less PA's than the second last in WAR. Why was he so bad? For starters, his slash line was .236/.288/.310, all significantly worse than his career average, all of them the very worst of his career. His BB% was down 1.2%, but his K% was also down, by 1.1%. His BABIP was down over .050 points, so that's a reasonable explanation as to the severe down year in AVG and OBP. His baserunning abilities were completely zapped with Izturis' transition from Los Angeles to Toronto. In 2,913 career PA's prior to the 2013 season, Izturis had 91 steals, good for an 18.74 steals per 600 PA rate. This year, he stole 1 base in 399 PA's. Izturis is 33 now and I wouldn't expect his old speed to come back, but I also wouldn't expect it to completely vanish like it did this year. His defense was another reason for his awful 2013 season. He amassed a UZR of -8.9 at 2B over 413.1 innings played, -4.7 UZR at 3B over 291.1 innings played, and -2.8 UZR over 174.1innings played at SS. This was by far Izturis' worst defensive seasons, and players have odd seasons where advanced metrics rate them really poorly sometimes, so it's possible he goes back next and is his average self. I'd also expect his batting totals to be better than this past year as his BABIP improves to league norm.
F
Shortstop:
Jose Reyes: Toronto Blue Jays fans hearts shattered on April 12th, 2013, as their new star shortstop ankle twisted awkwardly as he slid into second. The season, already off to a rough start, was shellshocked as Jose Reyes was rolling around second base, head in his shirt, tears streaming out of his eyes. Reyes worked hard to come back way ahead of schedule, at the end of June, and ended up accumulating 419 PA's for the club on the year. It was not a bad year nor a great year for the jovial Dominican. His triple slash line of .296/.353/.427 all hovered around his career averages. Those numbers should continue next year. A concern, however, is the lack of speed from Reyes after he came back from the severe ankle sprain. He only had 15 steals on the year, by far the fewest of his career in seasons in which he had at least 300 PA's. Hopefully this is because Reyes was wary of re-injuring his ankle, and I'd predict his goes back to around 35 steals if he plays a full season. Other than a couple peak defensive seasons during the beginning of his career, Reyes has been a fairly average shortstop, which definitely has value. This year was the worst of his career, with a -5.3 UZR. Again, this may because he range was less than usually, playing on a less than perfect ankle. I'd expect Reyes to be back to his old self all around next year, .290/.350/.440 with 35-40 steals and average at best defense, which is a pretty valuable player.
B+
Third Base:
Brett Lawrie: How long will Blue Jays fans be waiting for Lawrie to duplicate his amazing 43 games in 2011? Another season with Brett Lawrie has come and gone with plenty of different injuries plaguing him throughout the year. Pre All-Star break, Lawrie was quite bad, hitting .204/.261/.361. However, Lawrie really turned it around in the second half, finishing strong going .283/.346/.417, good for a .763 OPS. On the plus side, Lawrie slightly raised his BB% and lowered his K% from his 2012 season, which points to some plate discipline progression. His BABIP was .020 lower than his career norm so I would expect a small uptake next year across the board. Lawrie is still only 23, and at least improved upon his dismal 2012 season, having the same amount of HR's in 96 less PA's. His defense was down from last year, as he rode the coattails of John Farrell's severe shifting tactics in 2012 to have one of the best thirdbase defensive seasons ever. However, Lawrie is still a plus defender, even on a down year.
C+
Expect the next instalment of this series, The Outfield, to come out soon.
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